Major Expansion of Marine Forests in a Warmer Arctic

Accelerating warming and associated loss of sea ice are expected to promote the expansion coastal marine forests (macrophytes) along massive Arctic coastlines. Yet, this region has received much less attention compared other global oceans. The available future projections macrophytes still limited few species regions, mostly focused at lower latitude ranges, thus precluding well-informed IPCC impact assessments, conservation management. Here we aim quantify potential distributional changes intertidal subtidal brown macroalgae eelgrass by year 2100, relative present. We estimate habitat suitability means distribution modeling, considering in seawater temperature, salinity, nutrients cover under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios, one consistent with Paris Agreement (RCP 2.6) representing mitigation strategies 8.5). As data on substrate conditions do not exist, models were restricted depth range supporting (down 5 m for 30 macroalgae). Models projected major expansions between 69,940 123,360 km 2 , depending climate scenario, polar limits shifting northwards up 1.5 degrees 21.81 per decade. Such response changing will likely elicit biodiversity ecosystem functions Arctic. Expansions are, however, intense than those already realized over past century, indicating an overall slowing down despite accelerated as habitats become increasingly occupied.